As Tesla models get older and newer car models are released from rival electric vehicle manufacturers, sales in Teslas have dropped in a way that hasn’t been seen since 2012.
The drop in sales may have important implications for Tesla, its shareholders and the wider electric vehicle market. Tesla may look forward to their upcoming “robotaxi” reveal to help boost sales.
Estimates Continue to Drop
On Monday, Factset reported an analyst estimate of 436,000 vehicles delivered in the second quarter of 2024 for Tesla.
At the end of May, this figure was 448,000, meaning that the estimate has dropped by 3% since then.
Some Believe Final Figure May be Even Lower
Other experts have done their own analysis of Tesla’s situation and come to even gloomier conclusions, with some predicting lower Q2 sales even than the 436,000 estimate.
New Street reported that they expect 425,000 vehicles delivered, while Barclays used “buyside expectations” to come to an even lower estimate of 415,000 units.
Sales Decline As Bad As 2012
A Q2 drop in sales would mean that Tesla sales numbers have dropped for 2 quarters running.
This would be the first time that Tesla have reported sales declines in 2 consecutive quarters since 2012, which was attributed to the phase out of the Tesla Roadster in 2012.
Drops Follow Staffing Cuts
The sales estimate figures follow a spate of lay-offs in Tesla in the past few months, with CEO Elon Musk announcing staff cuts of over 10% back in April.
The staffing cuts included sales staff, but there is belief that sales figures in the future may pivot away from in-person to online sales.
Electric Vehicle Market May Actually Be Booming
Recent reports have suggested that the electric vehicle market is declining as carmakers shift towards hybrids. However, sales data collated by Automotive News suggests otherwise.
They found that electric sales have increased by 14% and, when you remove Tesla from the figures, they increased by 69%. Tesla may be alone in their struggles.
Tesla Pivot to Energy Storage
Tesla have begun to push their energy storage solutions under the Tesla Energy division of the company.
In Q1 of this year, for the first time, they reported their energy storage capacity numbers in their quarterly review alongside car delivery and sales numbers.
Tesla Energy Brand Launched in 2016
Tesla Energy Operations is a division of Tesla that manufactures and sells solar energy and energy storage solutions.
It is the successor to SolarCity, a solar energy company founded by Elon Musk’s cousins, that was bought by Tesla for $2.6 billion in 2016.
Sales Drop May Be Due to Global Factors
Tesla have suggested a number of factors to explain the drop in sales, some of which are not within their control.
Tesla says sales drops may be due to them being in the early stage of their updated Model 3 production ramp-up. They also suggested the arson attack on Gigafactory Berlin and the Red Sea conflict as potential reasons for decline.
Robotaxi Recovery
All of which means that Tesla’s upcoming “robotaxi” reveal is becoming ever more important for the company.
The 8th of August reveal is hoped to boost sales numbers as they are expected to announce steps toward some of their autonomous vehicles being able to be set to Fully Self-Driving mode and used as taxis, eliminating the need to pay a human driver for a taxi service.
