The US economy may have picked up in some ways on paper, but a recent survey is showing that numbers do not reflect the lived reality of many workers.
The labor market survey, run by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, shows a number of experiential metrics showing a concerning deterioration in regard to the current job market.
Job Market Woes
Recent months have shown at least one concerning trend in the US economy, and it’s a big one.
Employment numbers for July, released early this month, showed the highest unemployment rate for nearly 3 years.
Fears of Recession
Although unemployment remains relatively low, it represents a threat to the US economy due to the nature of the increase.
The rate of those out of work has risen 0.6%, and this is a signal that the economy may not in as great a state as was previously assumed.
Fear of Unemployment
One interpretation of the Federal Reserve Bank’s survey is that US citizens are beginning to sense this rising unemployment rate, and beginning to fear for their own.
4.4% of workers reported expecting to lose their jobs in the next 4 months, which is the highest percentage since the survey began, in 2014.
Increase in Proportion of Job Hunters
More US citizens are dissatisfied with their current jobs, and having their heads turned by the promise of pastures anew.
The increase in the number of jobseekers has been particularly sharp in comparison with the same point last year, with 28.4% having looked for a job in the past 4 weeks, compared to 19.4% in July 2023.
Job Changers
The survey, which began in 2014, has hit a low that will particularly concern employers that rely on staff loyalty.
In July 2023, 88% of employees reported that they were at the same employer they were with 4 months ago. This is the lowest percentage recorded ever by the survey.
Hope For Jobseekers
There is some minor good news for jobseekers, who at least can cling to the fact that, in one metric, things are not deteriorating.
19.4% of respondents to the survey reported that they had received a job offer in the last 4 months, which is almost exactly the same proportion as had last year in the same period.
Jobseekers Hope
Jobseekers appear to have picked up on the steady rate of job offers in the past year, and their optimism has only grown in the past year.
22.2% of those surveyed reported that they expect a job offer in the next 4 months, compared to only 18.7% in July 2023.
Reasons to Move
The increasing numbers of those seeking new jobs is likely linked to increasing dissatisfaction with current jobs, which was measured by asking about wages, non-wage benefits and promotion opportunities.
Satisfaction with all these metrics fell since last year, with non-wage benefits (64.9% to 56.3%) and promotion opportunities (53.5% to 44.2%) particularly stark.
What This Means
In order to entice increasingly wayward employees, bosses are going to have to offer benefits beyond simple wage increases.
Employees are increasingly dissatisfied with their current jobs, yet, at the same time, increasingly hopeful of successful job transitions. What about you? Are you also getting itchy feet?
