The Apophis “God of Chaos” asteroid has been known about since 2004.
Previous studies of it dismissed any threat of it hitting Earth, but a new comment by space expert Paul Wiegert has re-opened the possibility of it being on a collision course with us.
Widespread Destruction
If Apophis were to hit Earth it would cause widespread destruction.
It could release as much energy as hundreds of nuclear bombs. Depending on where it hit, it could also potentially kill millions of people. There would be devastation over an area of hundreds of miles.
Will Pass Twice
The Apophis asteroid will pass Earth twice in the near future, once in 2029 and once in 2036.
The 2036 event will be much further away at 5.2 million miles, so there is no chance of an impact on that occasion. In 2029, however, it will be much closer.
Asteroid Not Monitored
The Apophis asteroid will have very little monitoring between now and 2027 which means that changes in its course could go unnoticed.
This is because its postioning puts it in the day time sky between now and then which means it can’t be seen.
Closer Than Satellites
The current projected course for Apophis shows it coming closer to Earth than many satellites in 2029. Fortuitously, to some, the date when it will approach Earth is Friday 13th April.
It will approach us at a distance of 18,300 miles. According to space expert Paul Wiegert, though, this could all change very quickly.
What if Apophis is Hit?
If Apophis were hit by a small asteroid or meteoroid, this could be enough to knock it off course.
It could then be on a collision path with Earth. Wiegert’s paper has been accepted by the Planetary Science Journal and an open access version is available here.
The Exact Speed and Size
Wiegert’s paper has calculated the exact speed and size of an object needed to knock Apophis off course.
Thankfully, the chances of such a collision happening are very slim indeed. Less than one in a billion, in fact.
Observed in 2021
Apophis was observed with radar by astronomers in 2021.
Their observations refined existing knowledge of the asteroid’s orbit around the Sun and they have confidently predicted that Apophis will not hit Earth on its future fly-bys of 2068 and beyond.
Removed from Risk List
The Center for Near Earth Studies keeps a risk list of space objects that could potentially hit Earth.
Thanks to the 2021 measurements, Apophis has now been taken off this risk list.
Will Enter Gravitational Field
All that being said, Apophis will be close enough in 2029 to enter the Earth’s gravitational field.
The impact of Earth on Apophis could be “asteroid quakes” or a change in rotation. It will also be visible to people on Earth as it passes.
